Jones-Awan

Disclaimer. This page is built entirely from publicly available data and my own expert judgment. No confidential, privileged or otherwise non-public information from any employer, client or regulatory proceeding is used anywhere in it.

Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation of any kind. It is published for research and discussion only. Views are my own and not those of any employer or client.

firstprinciples energy hub

Add ticker, ETF or composite
Add a group

Returns by segment and benchmark

Total returns (dividends included). Segment rows are equal-weight indexes of the tracked stocks; click ▸ to see the stocks inside, click a name to chart it.

Segment returns

Click a segment bar to see its stocks.

Top picks

Uses the weights set on the Picks tab.

Data vintage

What each part of the hub is built on. Every chart carries a grey badge with its own window; hover it for detail.

Metric
Transform
Benchmark
Second metric
Second metric shows as
Range

Segment and region composites are drawn bold; individual stocks dotted. Use ⊕ on a composite chip to add or remove the stocks inside it (they take shades of the composite's color).

Click a legend entry to hide or show it; drag the slider to zoom. The first 8 names get their own color; extras are grey and named in the tooltip.

Return ladder

Total return over each look-back, ending at the latest close. Rising to the left = recent acceleration; rising to the right = long trend that is cooling. Toggle look-backs:

Distribution of returns

Share of periods in each return bucket over the selected range. Wider and flatter = riskier; a fat left tail = crash risk.

Risk and return statistics

Performance

Profile weights

What matters to you. Weights always total 100; remove or add characteristics below.

Rank each stock against

Profile

Each spoke is a percentile rank (100 = best in the universe, 50 = median). Low-is-better items such as P/E, leverage and volatility are flipped so outward is always better. Segment composites use the median of their members.

Fundamentals

Based on
Metric (for "change in a metric")
Window
Order
Pair rolling window

Correlation

Clustered order puts names that move together next to each other. Click any cell to open that pair below.

Pair

Ticker A
Ticker B
Value
Scale
Months

Monthly heatmap

Rows are the compare set, columns are calendar months. Z-score per row shows each name against its own history.

1. Which firms are accurate

Every past price target is checked against what the stock then did, scaled by that stock's normal volatility so a utility and a uranium miner are judged fairly. Small samples are pulled toward the average. Pick a segment to rank firms on that segment only.

Segment
Only firms active in the last
Minimum scored targets
Show

Accuracy edge = how much smaller the firm's typical target miss is than the average firm's (+20% = misses 20% less). Labels show n scored targets.

Accuracy edge by segment

Rows: the most active firms. Blank = fewer than 3 scored targets in that segment. Hover for n.

Firm scorecard

2. What those firms say now

Choose where to look (a segment or one ticker) and whose views count. Firms are ranked by accuracy in the segment chosen above (or overall).

Segment
Ticker
Firms
Look-back
Min firms per stock
"Agree" = Buy share at least (%)
and median upside at least (%)

Consensus map

Top-right = most of your firms rate it Buy and see real upside. Bubble size = number of firms.

Ranked by agreement

Firm by stock: latest call

Cell color = upside of the firm's latest target vs the latest close; letter = rating (B buy, H hold, S sell). Blank = no call in the look-back.

Latest calls from these firms

3. How prices react to calls

Segment
Window for tone, sources and words
Leaders and laggards by
Ticker deep-dive

News tone over time

Weekly average headline tone (-1 very negative to +1 very positive) with a 4-week average, and headline count below.

Thesis themes in the news

Headlines per week tagged with each firstprinciples theme.

Words driving the tone

Most frequent positive and negative words in headlines (energy-specific word list, last 12 months).

Media sources

Who writes the headlines and how positive each source is.

Tone by source, monthly

All tracked stocks, top sources by volume.

Leaders and laggards

Ticker

Latest headlines

All tickers

Weights

Preset
Compare each stock with
Min daily $ volume
Picks per group

Up to 8 factors at once, weights always total 100. Factor scores are z-scores (capped at ±3); a stock's score is the weighted average of the factors it has data for and needs at least 40% of the weight covered.

Top picks

Bars show each factor's contribution (weight × z-score); hover a segment for the inputs. Click a ticker to chart it against its sector ETF, SPY and its segment.

Grid regions

Color by

Schematic tiles in rough geographic order (not borders). Click a region for its market design, fuel mix and best picks.

Why they rank: factor exposure of the top 15

Blue = strong on that factor, red = weak (z-score). Column labels show the weight.

Top picks by segment

Top picks by grid region

Factor definitions

Each factor averages the z-scores of its inputs (each input winsorized at ±3 standard deviations). Signs show direction: -z means lower raw values score higher.

Everything else

Picks is available to subscribers

The Picks tab runs a weighted factor model across the tracked universe and ranks it. It is shared with subscribers rather than published openly.

Everything else on this page — Overview, Explorer, Fundamentals, Correlation, Heatmap, Analysts, Sentiment and Method — is fully open.

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